Poisson’s formula is a method of calculating the possibilities of recurrence of an event, based on a number of occurrences in the past.
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9 CLEAR
10 PRINT " LONG TERM PROBABILITY STUDY"
11 LET S=0
12 LET T=0
13 LET U=0
14 LET V=0
15 LET W=0
16 LET X=0
17 LET Y=0
18 LET Z=0
20 LET AA=0
22 LET BB=0
25 PRINT
30 PRINT "INPUT THE MAXIMUM OCCURRENCES IN ANY ONE UNIT OF TIME "
31 PRINT
32 PRINT " RANGE ALLOWED 3 TO 12"
40 INPUT A
45 CLS
50 PRINT "INPUT TOTAL OCCURENCES"
60 INPUT B
70 PRINT
80 PRINT "INPUT TOTAL TIME"
90 INPUT C
95 CLS
100 LET D=B/C
110 LET E=(1+(1/B))**B
120 LET F=1/(E**D)
130 LET P=F
140 LET Q=D*F
150 LET R=D**2/2*F
160 IF A>=3 THEN LET S=D**3/6*F
170 IF A>=4 THEN LET T=D**4/24*F
180 IF A>=5 THEN LET U=D**5/120*F
190 IF A>=6 THEN LET V=D**6/720*F
200 IF A>=7 THEN LET W=D**7/5040*F
210 IF A>=8 THEN LET X=D**8/40320*F
220 IF A>=9 THEN LET Y=D**9/362880*F
230 IF A>=10 THEN LET Z=D**10/3628800*F
233 IF A>=11 THEN LET AA=D**11/39916800*F
237 IF A=12 THEN LET BB=D**12/479001600*F
240 PRINT "PROBABILITY OF","PERCENT"
250 PRINT
252 REM CORRECTION FACTOR
255 LET N=P+Q+R+S+T+U+V+W+X+Y+Z+AA+BB
260 LET PP=(INT (P*10000/N+0.5))/100
270 LET QQ=(INT (Q*10000/N+0.5))/100
280 LET RR=(INT (R*10000/N+0.5))/100
290 LET SS=(INT (S*10000/N+0.5))/100
300 LET TT=(INT (T*10000/N+0.5))/100
310 LET UU=(INT (U*10000/N+0.5))/100
320 LET VV=(INT (V*10000/N+0.5))/100
330 LET WW=(INT (W*10000/N+0.5))/100
340 LET XX=(INT (X*10000/N+0.5))/100
350 LET YY=(INT (Y*10000/N+0.5))/100
360 LET ZZ=(INT (Z*10000/N+0.5))/100
363 LET AAA=(INT (AA*10000/N+0.5))/100
366 LET BBB=(INT (BB*10000/N+0.5))/100
370 LET A$="0 OCCURRENCES"
380 LET B$="1 """
390 LET C$="2 """
400 LET D$="3 """
410 LET E$="4 """
420 LET F$="5 """
430 LET G$="6 """
440 LET H$="7 """
450 LET I$="8 """
451 LET J$="9 """
452 LET K$="10 """
455 LET L$="11 """
457 LET M$="12 """
570 PRINT A$,PP,B$,QQ,C$,RR,D$,SS,E$,TT,F$,UU,G$,VV,H$,WW,I$,XX,J$,YY,K$,ZZ,L$,AAA,M$,BBB,,,,PP+QQ+RR+SS+TT+UU+VV+WW+XX+YY+ZZ+AAA+BBB