Crystal Balling Computer trends is my favorite pastime. Sometimes predictions come true almost overnight. The year 1990 ushers in a Warp 10 speed of Computer Evolution. The big trend of change is in HOME COMPUTING. As 1990 began there were some 18 Million computers in use throughout the USA. Add a few mil in Canada and England, plus a trivial number in the rest of Europe, plus perhaps a few hundred throughout the rest of the World. Maybe 22 Million total computers throughout the World were in use as 1990 began. The median cost per system was around $4000, which included printers, monitors, and disk drives. So we have been looking at a world wide in-use inventory of around $90 Billion worth of computers.
Look for a doubling during the 1990-1992 period! By year 1996 there will be 100 Million computers in the USA alone. By year 2000 the world wide use of computers will reach the half Billion mark. Such sharp increases require substantial advancements in technology. 1990 brings in Quantum Leaps in technology to fuel this gigantic revolution in computer usage. Recent new developments are:
FLASH MEMORY: Compact low power and high density memory chip storage is at hand. These new chips, the size of a paper match book, store a megabye of memory. The memory can be kept alive via tiny batteries kept charged by solar cells, as is done in hand held calculators. These high density chips allow computers the size of a note book to have more capability than our most expensive IBM 386 system of the present. This technology is available NOW and several new Computer Manufacturers are designing “Super Home Computers”. But 1990 isn’t the time to buy one. The early ones will be “too little and too early and priced too high”.
FUZZY MEMORY: Funny name, eh? These memory cells store bits of data that are of fractional values between One and Zero. Take a typical “one Byte” storage of 8 bits. (Fuzzy) Fractional storage in the 8 cells in .001 increments will allow an “8 Bit Byte” to store values ranging from zero to 256000, instead of our current value limit of 256 values per byte. Advanced Central Processing Units are under development to read and write incremental values to these Fuzzy Memory devices. The New CPUs will also break the barriers previously set for memory addressing.
OPTICAL DISK DRIVEs are now a reality. One manufacturer already has a 3 1/2 inch floppy disk that reads standard 360 or 1.2 Mgbt floppies, but has diskette format capacity for 20 megabytes of storage. Hard Disks are on their way out of the computer world just as HD technology is peaking. The need for disk drive of any sort is rapidly diminishing, and by the mid 1990s disk will be only used for one-time software entry into the computer’s own mass memory storage. Even that usage will disappear as new “card readers” are installed in the new computers for software entry. Who will need disk drives for “storage” when our computers have 160 mgbts of internal chip storage?
Computer programming will depart from how we know it to be today. Already the programmers are faced with un-managable depths of capacity in our (obsolete) 16 and 32 bit CPUs. Each new computer will be accompanied by an optional “Programmer’s Kit” that itself is a computer. Voice commands, accompanied with a few key strokes, will be enough for the CPU to create its own software programs. The enoromous amounts (by today standards) of computer on-board memory will allow whole libraries of software to be contained in computer memory.
1992 will mark the beginning of the end of computers as we know them to be today. The 20 million units in use mostly by business offices will rapidly be replaced by smaller office systems having 100 fold increase in capability. These 20 million obsolete units will be sold at clearance prices and will become our “Interim Home Computers”. A Doubling of computers in use will be an almost imediate result. These old office systems that cost $4-12000 will sell first at $299 per system, then $199, then for as little as $49.00 at surplus stores.
In the meantime several intrepreneur new computer firms will introduce the “New Home Computer Family”. We are already seeing some first blush models that are not up to the par required for success (Sharps, The Z88, and others). The first sucessful Home Computer to capture a million sales will employ a 1990 vintage 32 bit CPU and have 40 megabytes of on board memory, only 2 mgbts used for programming, and 38 for data storage. It will be the size of a page of paper, about two inches thick with a fold up screen having high res color resolution. The computer will be SOUND integrated, meaning that it will receive data input by voice and the data will be read back in simulated speech to be edited.
Such a computer should be available during the 1992-94 period and will likely sell for around $1200 at first with prices degenerating to $499 during a two year period. It will be successful because it will solve the present problems of small computers, namely “inadequate screen, and inadequate integration with a feed-in source for software”. Also the idea of speech control is attractive. But this computer will be soon followed by the “real” home computer. The scenario is, American Industry now smells a multi-billion market. Great incentives are present and Competition is savage. The Japanese will try to dominate this market, but their culture and language are not adaptable to understand the need.
Lets take a few minutes at the home coffee table with the computer that will sell to 100 million families during the time frame of 1994-2000. We bought the computer for $495 at Sears Roebuck. It is powered by solar cell. There is a long life battery inside that is kept charged enough during daytime to keep its 160 megabytes of memory from fading out. New Software programs come on “credit card size” cards that are inserted momentarily. We have the Encyclopedia Britticana stored in memory, plus the whole New Webster’s dictionary. Other full works of literary arts and science can be purchased from Sears, or other suppliers.
The computer is also a remote telephone, and it can be hooked up to the television for scheduling programs and for video recordings or play back. But now I’m using it to write a manuscript. I have entered the text in plain voice, never touching the keyboard. Now I ask for a read-back. The computer begins read back in Lauren Bacall’s lusty voice. I say, “STOP Back Up to “Whistle”. “Replace with “Call Me”. Lauren reads it back: “Just pucker your lips and call me”. I say, “Continue”, and Lauren picks up the read back again. (Computing should be fun, eh?)
By the year 2000 Home Computing has really caught on. Schools are beginning to issue student computers in the classroom. HRS issues them free to the under-privilidged. The Wife reads an exoitic food recipe into the comuter from the morning paper each day. When she cooks the computer reads the recipe ingredients to her (In Humprey Bogart’s raspy voice) as she mixes up a Swiss Chocolate canape. The arguements over use of the computer forces Dad to buy another one for Mabel, one for John Boy, and as Mitzi reaches age 9 one appears in her Christmas stocking.
Back in 1998 the successful American Corportions moved their production to China to take advantage of cheap labor. Within a couple of years the Chinese learned the production process and began manufacturing clones. These Chi-comm clones are selling for $79.95 in K-Mart Stores. American Manufactures are lobbying Congress for Trade Sanctions.
History tends to repeat itself. Seems that I remember something like that happening back in the 70’s. In the meantime, my Sinclair Computer is still working well and I’m waiting for Sir Clive’s next Z. “How old are you, BJ?” “Gee, I dunno, Son, I lost track when they went to Metric and added three days to the week and chopped off two munths from the year.” “The bells tells me when its Sunday, but The only way I knows when it’s Sattiday is when the post orfice dont open.” “And how old are you, Son?” “I’m 15. I was born in 1990”. “That was a good year, Son”.